As 2025 draws to a close, global financial markets have delivered a year defined by divergences, record-breaking performances in certain asset classes, and dramatic reversals that tested investor conviction. From the resurgence of precious metals, with gold posting its best year since 1979’s +136% annual gain, to the cryptocurrency market’s wild ride from all-time highs to deep losses, 2025 has been a masterclass in market complexity.
The S&P 500 has delivered a year-to-date return of +17% as of mid-December 2025, putting it on pace to post a third consecutive year of +15% returns. This is a notable achievement: such a streak has occurred only once since 1929, during the dot-com boom of 1995 - 1999. With a 10-year annualised return of 14.7%, the index’s performance ranks as the 25th best rolling 10-year return since 1928.
However, beneath these headline numbers lies a troubling concentration of returns. The Magnificent Seven tech stocks now represent approximately 35% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalisation. While this group has collectively outpaced the broader index by 4.5 percentage points, the individual performance tells a more nuanced story.
The divergence within the Magnificent Seven is worth noting. Google emerged as the clear winner, delivering a +60% return, significantly outpacing the S&P 500 and the rest of the group. NVIDIA followed with a +40% return, capitalizing on continued demand for AI chips. Tesla posted gains of +20%, while Microsoft delivered +14%.
In contrast, Apple, Meta, and Amazon significantly underperformed the S&P 500. Apple gained only +8%, while Meta posted +9% to +10%, and Amazon lagged with just -8%. The primary culprit is Trump’s tariff announcements. Both Apple and Amazon have significant supply chain exposure to countries targeted by tariffs.
The South African financial market has delivered one of the most striking performances of 2025. The MSCI South Africa Index has returned +50% year-to-date, making it the best-performing MSCI region globally. The JSE All Share Index is up over 21% year-on-year, while the Top 40 Index has gained nearly 23.5%.
Yet this robust performance masks a troubling disconnect. South Africa’s GDP growth remains below 1%. The economy is essentially stagnant, yet share prices are surging.
The answer lies in a two-speed JSE phenomenon. The market’s impressive returns are driven almost entirely by a narrow cohort of large multinational companies with most operations outside South Africa. Companies heavily reliant on the domestic economy have delivered muted returns. Of the ten largest companies on the JSE by market capitalisation, only FirstRand and Capitec are truly local companies.
The primary engine of JSE returns in 2025 has been the mining sector. The Resources 10 Index has more than doubled, driven by record-high gold prices and surging platinum group metals (PGMs) prices. South Africa is the world’s largest producer of platinum group metals, making JSE-listed miners exceptional performers.
For more information on the performance of miners in 2025, take a look at: Beyond The Downturn.
Naspers (NPN), the media and technology conglomerate, delivered a +33% return year-to-date, driven by a global rally in technology and e-commerce assets and record free cash flow growth. MTN Group (MTN), the pan-African telecommunications company, posted a robust +80% return, propelled by growth in its subscriber base, nearly 300 million across Africa and the Middle East, and rapid 5G rollout.
British American Tobacco (BTI) gained +37% despite regulatory challenges, reflecting resilient profitability and successful innovation in vapor and nicotine pouches.
2025 has been an extraordinary year for precious metals. Spot gold prices reached R75 960 per troy ounce in October. This far exceeds the previous best year in the modern era — 2007, when gold gained only +31.9%.
Silver has been the standout performer, soaring +145%, surpassing R1 300 per ounce as of mid-December for the first time. Platinum has delivered impressive gains of +135% as of mid-December.
● Diversification worked: The year proved that diversification across asset classes provided better risk-adjusted returns than concentration in a single asset class.
● Commodity prices matter: The surge in precious metals and the JSE’s strong performance demonstrate the outsized impact of commodity prices on markets.
● Geopolitical risk is real: The persistence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Trump’s tariff announcements showed that geopolitical events can move markets dramatically.
● Market indices can mislead: The JSE's +50% return when there is about 1% GDP growth is a powerful reminder that headline indices can mask underlying economic weakness.
● Concentration risk is rising: The Magnificent Seven’s dominance in the S&P 500 highlights concentration risk in equity markets.
● Safe-haven assets rally in uncertain times: Gold, silver, and platinum delivered exceptional returns, reflecting investors’ preference for tangible assets.
● Central bank policy divergence creates opportunities: Different central bank policies across regions have created opportunities for diversified investors.
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** This article was prepared by BROKSTOCK analyst Maboko Seabi
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