Get started
● Entry point: Consider initiating a position around the R93.60 - R94 zone.
● Stop loss: Set a stop loss at R91.50 to limit downside risk if the price breaks below key structural support.
● Take profit: Target R116.18, aligning with a significant resistance level and offering an estimated 24% potential upside.
● Strong share price rebound: Sasol’s stock surged over 45% since its May 2025 lows, signalling renewed investor confidence and potential for further upside as oil stabilises.
● Institutional accumulation: Major investors like Allan Gray and Coronation Resources Fund are buying in at current levels, citing attractive valuation and future cash flow potential.
● Energy transition & renewables move: Sasol is moving into renewables, co-launching Ampli Energy with Discovery Green, and sourcing power from the 69 MW Msenge Emoyeni wind farm under a long-term power purchase agreement (PPA). It also plans to expand renewables capacity to 2 GW by 2030, in line with efforts to decarbonise its coal-heavy operations while supporting its base business infrastructures
The share price is showing a clear uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows, a classic bullish pattern. Adding to this momentum, a “golden cross” is forming, where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is about to cross above the 200-day SMA, a widely recognised signal of long-term strength. The price is also trading above both moving averages, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Importantly, trading volume has increased as this uptrend has developed, suggesting growing investor interest and conviction.
RISKS
● Dividend suspension: The company skipped its interim dividend in December 2024, citing falling oil prices and demand, which may concern income-focused investors.
● Earnings volatility: Sasol’s earnings dropped 52% for the six months ending December 2024, due to weak refining margins, lower oil prices, and write-downs at its Secunda and Sasolburg plants. This raises questions about the sustainability of profits.
● High debt load: With net debt of R82 billion, mostly in US dollars, Sasol is highly exposed to currency risks and higher interest costs, especially if the rand weakens.
Disclaimer:
*Any opinions, views, analysis, or other information provided in this article is provided by BROKSTOCK SA trading as BROKSTOCK as general market commentary and should not be viewed as advice according to the FAIS Act of 2002. BROKSTOCK SA does not warrant the correctness, accuracy, timeliness, reliability, or completeness of any information provided by third parties. You must rely upon your judgement in all aspects of your investment decisions, and all decisions are made at your own risk. BROKSTOCK SA and any of its employees shall not be responsible for and will not accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss, including, without limitation, any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of the market commentary. The content contained within the article is subject to change at any time without notice. BROKSTOCK SA is an authorised financial services provider - FSP No. 51404. T&Cs and Disclaimers are applicable: https://brokstock.co.za/
** This article was prepared by BROKSTOCK analyst Maboko Seabi
