1. HORIZON: 0 - 4 months (Short-Term)
2. FROM: 12 February 2026 | UNTIL: 12 June 2026
3. MANAGEMENT ASSESSMENT: 25% growth
4. RECOMMENDATION: BUY
5. PROJECTION BASED ON: R20 000
● Potential entry: A buying opportunity will emerge once the share price closes above the R302 level.
● Risk management: To protect against downside risk, position a stop-loss at R251, which caps the maximum loss at approximately 17% below the entry price.
● Profit target: The upside objective is set at R378, offering a potential return of 25% from the entry level.
● Massive profit turnaround: After a difficult 2025 financial year, where earnings fell 70%, Implats has seen a dramatic recovery. The company has guided that its headline earnings for the first half of the 2026 financial year are expected to surge 392% to 411%. This massive turnaround is primarily driven by a strong recovery in Platinum group metal (PGM) prices.
● Favourable PGM price outlook: The price of platinum, a key driver of Implats’ revenue, is forecast to rise significantly. Bank of America has raised its 2026 platinum price forecast to $2 450/oz. This bullish outlook is supported by expectations of a persistent market deficit, with the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasting an average annual deficit of 689 000 ounces from 2026 to 2029.
● Strong cash flow and shareholder returns: The company has improved its financial health, swinging from a negative free cash flow of -R3.95 billion in FY2024 to a positive +R2.35 billion in FY2025. This has allowed the company to reinstate its dividend, paying out R1.65 per share.
The technical setup for Impala suggests the share remains in a healthy uptrend, with key indicators pointing toward a potential resumption of bullish momentum following a period of consolidation.
● Long-term uptrend remains intact: The share price is currently trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is a critical indicator of the primary trend direction. This positioning confirms the upward trend is still applicable and the bulls remain in control of the long-term trajectory.
● Successful test of medium-term support: The price has recently tested the 50-day SMA, a key level that represents medium-term sentiment. This test is significant because it demonstrates that buyers are stepping in at this support level, viewing it as an attractive entry point. A successful hold at the 50-day SMA suggests that the trend continuation is likely and the recent pullback was merely a healthy consolidation within the broader uptrend.
● Momentum shift on the horizon: The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator is poised for a bullish crossover, where the MACD line is about to cross above its signal line.
● Extreme commodity price volatility: The miners' profitability is directly tied to the highly volatile prices of PGMs. While the recent price surge has driven a profit recovery, a reversal could just as quickly erase those gains.
● Operational challenges in South Africa: The country’s electricity prices have risen by over 900% since 2007, and load shedding remains a major threat to production and profitability. These issues make South African mining operations increasingly uncompetitive on a global scale.
● Production: Impala has faced its own production challenges, including smelter issues that led to a projected 3% decline in PGM production in 2025.
● Significant 2026 platinum price rise forecast by Bank of America Securities
● Mining sector sounds alarm over soaring electricity costs
● Implats Forecasts 3% Lower PGM Output for 2025
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** This article was prepared by BROKSTOCK analyst Maboko Seabi
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