Investment Insights - PROSUS N.V (PRX)

START - R1045.00 | FINISH - R1253.80

1. HORIZON: 0 - 4 months (Short-Term)

2. FROM: 24 December 2025 | UNTIL: 24 April 2026

3. MANAGEMENT ASSESSMENT: 20% growth

4. RECOMMENDATION: BUY

5. PROJECTION BASED ON: R25 000

TRADING PLAN

●      Entry Price: Consider entering the trade once the share price records a confirmed close above R1045.00, signalling a continuation of upward momentum.

●      Risk management: A protective stop can be placed around R952.70, which limits downside exposure to approximately 8.8% from the entry price.

●      Profit Target: A potential take-profit level is around R1253.80, representing an upside of roughly 20% from current price levels.

WHY THESE SHARES HAVE POTENTIAL FOR PROFIT

●     Discount to Net Asset Value (NAV)

Prosus is trading at a discount compared to the underlying value of its assets. As of December 2025, the company’s official Net Asset Value (NAV) per share was R1 570.00. With the JSE share price trading below this level, investors are effectively buying into the company’s portfolio for much less than its intrinsic worth. This discount is largely driven by the company’s massive stake in Tencent, which alone is valued at over $164 billion

●     Exposure to Global High-Growth Themes and AI

An investment in Prosus provides diversified exposure to some of the world’s most promising long-term growth themes and regions. The portfolio is heavily invested in:

-     Food delivery & e-commerce: With major stakes in iFood (Latin America), Swiggy (India), and Delivery Hero.

-     Fintech: Through its rapidly growing payments and credit business, PayU, particularly in India.

-     Artificial intelligence: The company is heavily investing in AI to accelerate growth, with over 20 000 AI agents already deployed across its ecosystem to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency .

●     Rapidly Improving E-commerce Portfolio

Beyond the Tencent stake, Prosus’s own e-commerce businesses are showing strong growth and a dramatic turn towards profitability. In its half-year results for the period ending September 2025, the e-commerce portfolio reported:

-     Revenue Growth: Consolidated e-commerce revenue grew by 22% to $3.6 billion.

-     Surging Profitability: Adjusted EBITDA from the e-commerce segment surged by 70% to $530 million, with all operated businesses now profitable.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

The technical setup for Prosus suggests that the stock is at a critical inflection point, with multiple indicators aligning to signal a potential bullish reversal and the start of a new uptrend.

●     Key Support Test and Pattern Breakout

The share price has tested the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which represents a crucial long-term support level. This test coincides with a breakout from a falling wedge pattern, a classic bullish reversal formation. The falling wedge is characterised by converging trendlines that slope downward, and a breakout above the upper trendline typically signals that the downtrend is exhausted and that buyers are regaining control. The fact that this breakout is occurring at the 200-day SMA adds significant weight to the bullish case, as it suggests strong support from long-term investors.

●     Bullish Momentum Confirmation

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator has made a bullish crossover, where the MACD line crosses above its signal line. This is a key momentum signal that indicates the recent downward pressure has ended and that upward momentum is now building. When combined with the falling wedge breakout, this crossover provides strong confirmation that the technical picture is turning positive.

●     Long-Term Trend Remains Intact

The successful test of the 200-day SMA without breaking below it demonstrates that the long-term bullish trend structure remains intact. This level is acting as a critical floor, and the price holding above it suggests that the bulls are still in charge of the primary trend despite the recent consolidation period.

RISKS

●     Extreme Concentration in Tencent

Prosus’s value is dominated by its stake in a single company, Tencent. As of December 2025, the Tencent holding accounts for approximately 78% of Prosus’s total asset value. This creates a significant concentration risk, meaning any negative developments affecting Tencent, such as increased competition, slowing growth, or market sentiment turning against it will have a negative impact on Prosus’s share price.

●     Chinese Regulatory and Geopolitical Risk

Because Tencent is a Chinese company, its value is subject to the unpredictable nature of the Chinese government’s regulatory actions. Beijing has a history of cracking down on its technology giants, which can erase billions in value overnight. Also to keep in mind the ongoing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China create an additional layer of risk, as sanctions or investment restrictions could be imposed that directly affect Tencent and, by association, Prosus .

●     Execution Risk in the E-commerce Portfolio

While the e-commerce portfolio is showing signs of improvement, many of its businesses are still in high-growth, cash-burning phases in highly competitive sectors like food delivery and online marketplaces. There is execution risk involved in scaling these businesses to sustainable profitability. Any failure to execute, increased competition, or need for further heavy investment could drain resources and negatively impact the company’s overall financial performance, disappointing investors who are counting on this segment to become the next major value driver.

SOURCES

●     Prosus - Net Asset Value

●     PDF - PRX Latest Earnings Report

●     No letting go of Tencent, says Prosus chair Koos Bekker

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** This article was prepared by BROKSTOCK analyst Maboko Seabi