Investment Insights - Boeing Company (BA)

START - $218 | FINISH - $259.50

1. HORIZON: 0 - 3 months (Short-Term)

2. FROM: 10 October 2025 | UNTIL: 11 January 2026

3. MANAGEMENT ASSESSMENT: 19% growth

4. RECOMMENDATION: BUY

5. PROJECTION BASED ON: R10 000

TRADING PLAN

●      Optimal entry: Monitor for potential buying opportunities within the $214.50 – $218 range, an area that has shown recent consolidations.

●      Downside protection: Place a stop loss at $198.50, positioned below the recent low, to manage downside risk.

●      Upside target: Aim for an upside target of $259.50, which implies a potential gain of roughly 19% from the suggested entry range.

WHY THESE SHARES HAVE POTENTIAL FOR PROFIT

●      Strong market demand & order book: The commercial aviation market is experiencing a strong post-pandemic recovery, with global passenger traffic expected to grow 3.7% in 2025 to 9.8 billion passengers. Boeing's own market outlook forecasts a need for 43 600 new commercial aircraft through 2044, with emerging markets driving much of this growth. This demand is reflected in Boeing's massive order backlog, which stands at approximately $619 billion, covering over 5 900 commercial aircraft. Recent orders, including a large deal with Turkish Airlines for 787 and 737 MAX jets, highlight continued airline confidence in Boeing's products.

●      Production ramp-up & delivery improvements: A key focus for Boeing in 2025 has been stabilising and increasing its production rates. The company has reached its FAA-approved monthly production rate of 38 for the 737 MAX and is looking to increase this to 42 per month. Production of the 787 Dreamliner has also increased, exceeding targets for consecutive months. By August 2025, Boeing had delivered 385 jets, surpassing its total for all of 2024, signalling progress in clearing its inventory and generating cash flow.

●      Strengthening defense & space portfolio: Boeing's Defence, Space & Security (BDS) division provides a crucial compensation during the cyclical nature of commercial aviation. And the company continues to secure government contracts. In September 2025 alone, Boeing was awarded a combined $82 million for space communications and aviation components. Earlier in the year, it secured a major contract for the F-15 Eagle Passive Active Warning Survivability System, with a ceiling of over $615 million. These contracts provide a steady and reliable revenue stream.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

●      Long-term trend remains bullish: A critical indicator of long-term market sentiment is the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Boeing's stock is currently trading above its 200-day SMA, which stands around $194 - $200. This is a widely watched bullish signal, indicating that despite recent price dips, the bulls are still in charge of the primary, long-term trend.

●      Key support level test: The stock is currently testing a support zone around the $215 level. This area is noteworthy as it aligns with previous highs from earlier in the year, including the highs of June 2025. In technical analysis, a former resistance level, once broken, often becomes a new support level. The price holding at this price point is a constructive sign, suggesting that buyers are stepping in at this psychologically important mark.

●      Bullish momentum signal: The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator, which measures short-term momentum, has shown a bullish crossover. This occurs when the MACD line crosses above its signal line, suggesting that upward momentum is increasing and the price trend may be shifting upwards.

RISKS

●      Persistent quality control & reputational issues: Boeing's reputation continues to be impacted by past and recent safety incidents. The January 2024 door-plug blowout on an Alaska Airlines flight and a fatal Air India crash in June 2025 have kept the company under an intense regulatory and public eye. These events have led to stricter FAA oversight, production caps and ongoing investigations, which can result in delays and increased costs. Rebuilding trust with regulators, airlines, and the public remains a big challenge.

●      Production & certification delays: Boeing is still struggling with certification delays for new key models, including the 737 MAX 7, MAX 10 and the wide-body 777X. These delays hinder its ability to compete effectively with Airbus, particularly against the popular A321neo. Ongoing supply chain disruptions across the aerospace industry also continue to pose a risk to production stability.

●      Financial health and high debt load: The company's balance sheet remains a concern for investors. As of the latest reports, Boeing has a net debt of over $33 billion. Financial metrics from early 2025 show negative operating and net margins, indicating profitability challenges. While the company aims for positive free cash flow by the end of the year and a return to profitability in 2026, its current financial state is weak, limiting its ability to return capital to shareholders.

SOURCES

● ACI World Projects 2025 Global Passenger Traffic To Hit 9.8B

● Making Progress: How Boeing's Improved Production Rates Impact The Company's H2 2025 Outlook

● Boeing secures $82 million in defense contracts for space and aviation

● Boeing: Good News, But Not A Buy

Disclaimer:
*Any opinions, views, analysis, or other information provided in this article is provided by BROKSTOCK SA trading as BROKSTOCK as general market commentary and should not be viewed as advice according to the FAIS Act of 2002. BROKSTOCK SA does not warrant the correctness, accuracy, timeliness, reliability, or completeness of any information provided by third parties. You must rely upon your judgement in all aspects of your investment decisions, and all decisions are made at your own risk. BROKSTOCK SA and any of its employees shall not be responsible for and will not accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss, including, without limitation, any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of the market commentary. The content contained within the article is subject to change at any time without notice. BROKSTOCK SA is an authorised financial services provider - FSP No. 51404. T&Cs and Disclaimers are applicable: https://brokstock.co.za/
** This article was prepared by BROKSTOCK analyst Maboko Seabi