Investment Insights - Harmony Gold Mining (HAR)

START - R294.50 | FINISH - R356.50

1. HORIZON: 0 - 4 months (Medium-Term)

2. FROM: 30 October 2025 | UNTIL: 27 February 2026

3. MANAGEMENT ASSESSMENT: 21% growth

4. RECOMMENDATION: BUY

5. PROJECTION BASED ON: R15 000

TRADING PLAN

●     Potential entry: Entry price can be initiated once share price closes above the R294.50.

●     Risk management: A level around R263.13 has acted as recent support , if the price were to fall below it, it could indicate a loss of short-term momentum. This area represents roughly 10.70% below the current range.

●     Profit target: The next key resistance is near R356.50, which aligns with a 21% move from current levels and may serve as a reference point for those tracking the share’s potential upside.

WHY THESE SHARES HAVE POTENTIAL FOR PROFIT

●     Strategic diversification into copper:

Harmony Gold has successfully completed the R18.4 billion acquisition of MAC Copper. This is a strategic move that diversifies its revenue base away from being a pure-play gold miner. It gives the company exposure to copper, a critical metal for the global green energy transition, which is used in everything from electric vehicles to renewable energy infrastructure, which has very strong long-term demand fundamentals.

●     High leverage to the gold price:

As one of the world's major gold producers, Harmony's profitability is directly and highly sensitive to the price of gold. If an investor is bullish on the gold price due to factors like inflation, geopolitical uncertainty or a weaker US dollar, Harmony offers potential upside.

●     Strong operational track record and growth projects:

Harmony has a portfolio of quality, long-life assets, including the world-class Wafi-Golpu project in Papua New Guinea. This project, rich in both gold and copper, represents a massive long-term growth opportunity for the company once it receives its final permits and development begins.

●     Improving financial health:

In recent years, Harmony has focused on strengthening its balance sheet and improving operational efficiencies. The company has been generating strong cash flows, allowing it to fund acquisitions like MAC Copper while also returning capital to shareholders through dividends when conditions permit.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

The technical picture for Harmony suggests that while the long-term trend remains positive, the share is currently at a key decision point that will determine the next directional move.

●     Long-term trend remains bullish:

A critical indicator of long-term market sentiment is the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Harmony's share is currently trading above its 200-day SMA, which is a widely-watched bullish signal. This indicates that despite any short-term pullbacks, the bulls are still in charge of the primary, long-term trend.

●     Successful test of support:

The share price recently declined to test the lower band of its bollinger bands (BB). The fact that the price found support there and subsequently closed higher is a bullish sign. It suggests that the selling pressure was absorbed at that level and that the share was perceived as oversold on a short-term basis.

●     Awaiting bullish confirmation:

The key level to watch now is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at R293.16. This moving average is acting as immediate resistance. A decisive and sustained close above the 50-day SMA at R293.16 would serve as a strong confirmation signal, suggesting that the recent pullback is over and that a continuation of the bullish trend is likely.

RISKS

●     High operational and geographic risk:

A portion of Harmony's operations are in South Africa, which involves deep-level, labor-intensive mining. This exposes the company to risks such as rising electricity costs and labor disputes.

●     Integration risk with MAC copper:

While the acquisition is strategically positive, integrating a large R18.4 billion asset comes with execution risk. Harmony will need to successfully merge the operations, manage the new debt taken on to fund the deal and deliver the expected synergies and performance improvements. Any missteps in this process could negatively impact financial results in the short to medium term.

●     Volatility and capital intensity:

Gold mining is a highly cyclical and capital-intensive industry. Harmony's profitability can be volatile, fluctuating with the gold price, currency exchange rates and operational performance.

●     Dependence on commodity prices:

Ultimately, Harmony's success is tied to the prices of gold and now copper, which are beyond its control. A sustained downturn in the price of either commodity would put pressure on the company's revenue, profitability and share price.

SOURCES

●     Moneyweb - Harmony Gold completes R18.4bn MAC Copper acquisition

●     Harmony Gold - Integrated Annual Report 2025 (See Financial Performance sections)

●     Harmony Gold - Wafi-Golpu Project Details

Disclaimer:
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** This article was prepared by BROKSTOCK analyst Maboko Seabi