The MTN Group, Africa's largest mobile network operator, has reported that full-year earnings are expected to more than quadruple, driven by a sharp recovery in its key Nigerian and Ghanaian operations. The Johannesburg-based company projects earnings per share between R10.62 and R11.68 for the 12 months ended December 2025, a dramatic swing from the loss recorded in the prior year.
The two West African powerhouses — which together contribute over 40% of group revenue — have delivered robust results following a period of significant currency-related pressure. MTN Nigeria swung to a profit of 1.1 trillion naira ($809 million) in 2025, recovering from a loss in the previous year when the naira's depreciation severely impacted earnings. The Nigerian unit also raised its medium-term EBITDA margin guidance when it reported on 26 February. MTN Ghana followed two days later, reporting that net income climbed more than 50%.
"MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana delivered robust results in their full-year earnings releases, highlighting improved profitability on better revenue growth," the company said in a statement.
The naira's stabilisation has been critical to the turnaround. During the 2024 financial year, the currency's volatility wiped out profits and created significant reporting challenges. With the exchange rate now settled, Nigeria is once again contributing meaningfully to group profitability.
Investors have rewarded the recovery. MTN's share price has surged nearly 80% over the past 12 months, lifting the group's market capitalisation to R381 billion ($23.7 billion).
The sentiment is strongly positive, reflecting a clean operational turnaround in MTN's most important markets. The swing from loss to substantial profit in Nigeria, combined with Ghana's 50% net income growth, validates the thesis that currency stabilisation was the missing piece in MTN's recovery story. With over 40% of group revenue now firing on all cylinders, the quadrupling of EPS is less surprising than the speed of the rebound. The raised EBITDA guidance from Nigeria suggests management sees this as sustainable, not a one-off bounce. The 80% share price rally over 12 months indicates the market anticipated much of this good news, but the scale of the earnings jump to R10.62 – R11.68 per share may still exceed expectations. The question now is whether MTN can build on this momentum, with other operations contributing and cash flows strengthening. For now, this is a clean execution story: currency stability restored, profitability recovered, and shareholder value created. The market will look for continued discipline and potential capital allocation updates when full results are released.
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