October Effect: Fourth quarter overview
October is often seen as a month of heightened activity and volatility. As the first month of the final quarter, it is jam-packed with events driven by economic trends, earnings reports, and historical patterns. Here's what investors should know and watch out for in October:
"October Effect"
The "October Effect" refers to the idea that this month is more prone to equity market declines than any other month. Historical data shows that market crashes in October, such as the 1929 Great Depression crash and Black Monday in 1987, have had a lasting impact on market psychology. However, in recent decades, October has been the scene of both sharp market declines and notable recoveries.
Volatility
October tends to be a volatile month for equities, largely due to the combination of market events and historical nervousness. Factors like economic data releases, geopolitical tensions, and potential policy shifts from central banks can intensify market movements.
Q3 Earnings Season
October also kicks off the third-quarter earnings season, where investors get a clearer view of how companies have performed over the last quarter. Earnings reports are important because they reveal how businesses are dealing with economic challenges such as inflation, interest rate hikes, and supply chain disruptions. Watch out for guidance on the fourth quarter as companies often adjust expectations for the year ahead during these reports.
Holiday Retail Trends
The fourth quarter includes the holiday shopping season, a key driver for retail and consumer-focused companies. Investors should watch early reports on consumer spending, as this will indicate the strength of the retail sector.
Portfolio Rebalancing
As investors prepare for the year's end, October often comes with an increase in portfolio rebalancing. Fund managers and institutional investors might shift their strategies as they position themselves to take profits from successful investments. This activity can lead to unpredictable price movements, especially in individual stocks or sectors.
Disclaimer:
*Any opinions, views, analysis or other information provided in this article is provided by BCS Markets SA trading as BROKSTOCK as general market commentary and should not be viewed as advice according to the FAIS Act of 2002. BCS Markets SA does not warrant the correctness, accuracy, timeliness, reliability or completeness of any information provided by third parties. You must rely upon your judgement in all aspects of your investment decisions and all decisions are made at your own risk. BCS Markets SA and any of its employees shall not be responsible for and will not accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss including without limitation any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of the market commentary. The content contained within the article is subject to change at any time without notice. BCS Markets SA is an authorised financial services provider FSP No. 51404.
** This article was prepared by BROKSTOCK analyst Maboko Seabi
BROKSTOCK SA (PTY) LTD is an authorised Financial Service Provider and is regulated by the South African Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSP No.51404). BROKSTOCK SA (PTY) LTD Proprietary Limited trading as BROKSTOCK. BROKSTOCK SA (PTY) LTD t/a BROKSTOCK acts solely as an intermediary in terms of the FAIS Act, rendering only an intermediary service (i.e., no market making is conducted by BROKSTOCK SA (PTY) LTD t/a BROKSTOCK) in relation to derivative products (CFDs) offered by the liquidity providers. Therefore, BROKSTOCK SA (PTY) LTD t/a BROKSTOCK does not act as the principal or the counterparty to any of its transactions.
The materials on this website (the “Site”) are intended for informational purposes only. Use of and access to the Site and the information, materials, services, and other content available on or through the Site (“Content”) are subject to the laws of South Africa.
Risk notice Margin trading in financial instruments carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all users. It is essential to understand that investing in financial instruments requires extensive knowledge and significant experience in the investment field, as well as an understanding of the nature and complexity of financial instruments, and the ability to determine the volume of investment and assess the associated risks. BROKSTOCK SA (PTY) LTD pays attention to the fact that quotes, charts and conversion rates, prices, analytic indicators and other data presented on this website may not correspond to quotes on trading platforms and are not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The delay of the data in relation to real-time is equal to 15 minutes but is not limited. This indicates that prices may differ from actual prices in the relevant market, and are not suitable for trading purposes. Before deciding to trade the products offered by BROKSTOCK SA (PTY) LTD, a user should carefully consider his objectives, financial position, needs and level of experience. The Content is for informational purposes only and it should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. BROKSTOCK SA (PTY) LTD will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this Site including data, quotes, conversion rates, etc.
Third party content BROKSTOCK SA (PTY) LTD may provide materials produced by third parties or links to other websites. Such materials and websites are provided by third parties and are not under BROKSTOCK SA (PTY) LTD's direct control. In exchange for using the Site, the user agrees not to hold BROKSTOCK SA (PTY) LTD, its affiliates or any third party service provider liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision user makes based on information or other Content made available to the user through the Site.
Limitation of liability The user’s exclusive remedy for dissatisfaction with the Site and Content is to discontinue using the Site and Content. BROKSTOCK SA (PTY) LTD is not liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or punitive damages. Working with BROKSTOCK SA (PTY) LTD you are trading share CFDs. When trading CFDs on shares you do not own the underlying asset. Share CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. A high percentage of retail traders accounts lose money when trading CFDs with their provider. All rights reserved. Any use of Site materials without permission is prohibited.