Coal exports from South Africa’s key Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) surged 11% in 2025, reaching 57.66 million metric tons — the highest volume since 2021. This rebound is attributed to measurable improvements in the country’s freight rail network after years of severe operational constraints.
The recovery, while significant, remains partial. Export volumes are still well below the terminal’s 91-million-ton capacity and the 76 million tons shipped in 2017. The bottleneck has historically been state-owned Transnet, whose rail infrastructure has been hampered by equipment shortages, spare parts issues, and persistent cable theft and vandalism. These challenges have forced mineral exporters to use more expensive road transport and even divert some cargo to neighbouring Mozambique.
However, major miners like Thungela Resources and Exxaro Resources have noted a marked improvement in rail performance beginning in the latter half of 2024. Data from RBCT confirms this trend: the terminal offloaded 7 157 trains in 2025, a substantial increase from 6 342 the previous year, raising the daily average to 20 from 17.
Asia continues to be the dominant market for South African coal, receiving 79.8% of total shipments, though its share declined slightly from 84.5% in 2024. India remains the largest single destination, importing 25.75 million tons (45% of the total).
Notable shifts occurred in other regions. Exports to Europe increased modestly to 7.2% of the total, driven by higher demand from the Netherlands. More sharply, shipments to the Middle East nearly doubled to 3.54 million tons, with exports to Israel alone rising by 1 million tons to 1.78 million tons.
The sentiment surrounding South African coal and its related logistics sector is cautiously optimistic. The consistent, data-backed improvement in rail performance is a clear positive signal, suggesting that the worst of the operational crisis may be over. This translates to tangible upside for major mining companies through lower transport costs and improved export volume reliability.
However, this optimism is tempered by the recognition of the deep-seated challenges that remain. The current recovery is from a very low base, and sustained investment and security measures are needed at Transnet to close the gap to pre-crisis capacity. The market is likely to view this as a promising start rather than a complete resolution, with continued scrutiny on monthly rail performance metrics. Additionally, the shifting export patterns highlight the industry's adaptability to global energy demand, providing diversified market access that strengthens its resilience.
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