The $60 800 Question: Is Bitcoin Rhyming With 2023?

Where the market stands

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $63 500, roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126 230. The decline began after late-February tariff announcements, which pushed inflation expectations up and took Fed rate cuts off the table, prompting institutional rotation out of risk assets. The price in 2026 reached a $57 730 low, then held weekly closes above $63 000 while reclaiming the long-term simple moving average (SMA) and the ascending channel's lower boundary near the $62 000 support level, a confluence of three technical supports at one price zone, visible on the chart below.

The 2022 - 2023 comparison

The resemblance is documented, not just visual. In late 2022, the weekly relative strength index (RSI) fell into oversold territory. Price printed a lower low while the RSI printed a higher low, a bullish divergence that preceded the November 2022 bottom at ~$16 400 and the multi-year uptrend that followed. Historically, the last two oversold weekly RSI divergences (2015, 2022) both marked cycle bottoms.

ETF flows paused

The outflow pressure has broken but not reversed into a trend, and 2026 year-to-date (YTD) net outflows stand at around $5.4B, including a record 13-day streak around $4.3B from mid-May to early June. On 2 July, a 10-day outflow streak ended with $221.7M of inflows, the largest daily intake in two months, led by Fidelity's FBTC (+$166M) and ARKB (+$92M), though BlackRock's IBIT still bled $40M that same day. One day of inflows recovered about 4% of the year's exits. Cumulative net flows since the 2024 launch remain positive at ~$54B, down from the $62B peak. So, on observation, the streak is over, and long-term holders have resumed buying, but whether outflows are done cannot yet be confirmed by the data. IBIT's continued outflow shows institutional demand remains divided.

Volumes

Spot trading volume has fallen below $8B, the lowest since October 2023, down from $25B+ in February 2026. This matters in both directions: the 2023 bottom also formed on depressed volume, but thin liquidity means moves are easier to reverse, and recent ETF inflows arriving without a rise in spot volume suggest the buying isn't yet backed by broad market participation. A durable trend change in prior cycles was confirmed by volume expansion, which has not yet occurred.

Implications for the rest of the crypto market

Total crypto market cap sits near $2.2T with Bitcoin dominance around 58%. The historical pattern after a BTC bottom is sequential rotation: capital stabilises in Bitcoin first, then moves to large caps, like Ethereum and Solana, then mid and small caps. However, the 2023 market move cuts both ways; after the November 2022 bottom, altcoins had a sharp early-2023 recovery. Bitcoin held dominance for most of that recovery, and in the current cycle, most tokens have underperformed for eight straight months. So if the 2023 technical analysis holds, the observable sequence would be Bitcoin recovering first, with altcoin participation lagging and selective rather than universal.

Key differences from 2023 worth noting

This drawdown has been longer and driven by different sellers. ETF redemptions didn't exist in 2022, and persistent inflation left rate cuts uncertain, whereas 2023 benefitted from peaking rates and several analysts still project lower targets, as low as $38K - $55K, with some models placing a final low as late as October 2026. The divergence signal is present, but signals describe probability, not certainty; the same chart pattern can fail if economic conditions deteriorate.

Summary of observable facts: 

Weekly bullish RSI divergence confirmed for the first time this cycle, mirroring late-2022, price holding above the 200 SMA, channel support, and the $60 800 level simultaneously. The ETF outflow streak ended with the largest inflow in two months, but YTD flows are still negative. Volumes are at multi-year lows, leaving the move unconfirmed. Whether these conditions resolve the way 2023 did is a decision each investor must weigh against the unresolved risks.

Disclaimer:
*Any opinions, views, analysis, or other information provided in this article is provided by BROKSTOCK SA trading as BROKSTOCK as general market commentary and should not be viewed as advice according to the FAIS Act of 2002. BROKSTOCK SA does not warrant the correctness, accuracy, timeliness, reliability, or completeness of any information provided by third parties. You must rely upon your judgement in all aspects of your investment decisions, and all decisions are made at your own risk. BROKSTOCK SA and any of its employees shall not be responsible for and will not accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss, including, without limitation, any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of the market commentary. The content contained within the article is subject to change at any time without notice. BROKSTOCK SA is an authorised financial services provider - FSP No. 51404. T&Cs and Disclaimers are applicable: https://brokstock.co.za/
** This article was prepared by BROKSTOCK analyst Maboko Seabi

Disclaimer:

Investing in cryptocurrencies involves substantial risks, including high volatility, lack of regulation, security threats, technological vulnerabilities, market manipulation, liquidity concerns, legal uncertainty, absence of guarantees, limited recourse, and unpredictable future developments. Investors must conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before engaging in cryptocurrency transactions. These instruments are available exclusively as CFDs (Contracts for Difference). BROKSTOCK SA (Pty) Ltd. Trading as BROKSTOCK. An authorised Financial Services Provider - FSP 51404, T&Cs and Disclaimers apply.