
South Africa’s economy shrank 0.2% in the second quarter. The Reserve Bank also raised interest rates to 7.25% because of rising fuel prices and other inflation pressures. The next rate decision is on 19 November.
This creates a mixed market. Banks may continue to report good profits, but customers may struggle with higher loan costs. Property shares may benefit if bond yields fall, but they can weaken if rates stay high. Copper miners are supported by high copper prices, but they remain exposed to a fall in copper or bad merger news.
Possible target: R912.80, about 9% higher.
Anglo’s copper production fell 5% in the third quarter because of bad weather in Chile and lower-quality ore. However, the company kept its full-year copper production target and lowered its expected copper costs.
The biggest potential boost is Anglo’s planned merger with Teck. China is the last major regulatory approval still needed. The companies still expect the deal to finish by March 2027.
What would help the share: If China makes progress on the merger, copper stays near its recent highs, and Anglo’s Q4 production improves.
Main risk: The merger could be delayed, rejected, or approved with conditions. Copper may also fall after its strong rise.
Possible target: R323.15, about 8% higher.
Standard Bank had a strong first half. Profit increased 10% to R26.1bn, the dividend increased 10% to 902 cents, and return on equity was 19.8%.
The picture is not completely positive. The bank’s lending income grew, but after lending and funding costs, profit shrank. Higher interest rates may support some income, but they can also increase customer stress and loan losses.
What would help the share: Profit growth stays close to double digits, bad-loan losses remain low, and the bank’s lending profit stops falling.
Main risk: Higher rates weaken customers, loan growth slows, and the bank’s lending profit continues to shrink.
Possible target: R25.80, about 4% higher.
Fortress reported strong results. Its income available for distribution increased 14.2%, the full-year dividend increased to R1.79 per share, and debt fell from 39.1% to 34% of property value. The company also raised R1.35bn to fund new developments.
The dividend is worth roughly 7.2% at R24.75. Fortress expects next year’s distribution per share to grow about 7.5%.
The share recently traded near R24.94, but the actual 52-week high shown in delayed JSE data was R26.89. Therefore, R24.94 is recent resistance, not a true 12-month breakout level.
What would help the share: The price closes above R24.94 with bond yields falling and the company continuing to fill its new properties.
Main risk: Higher interest rates and bond yields make property shares less attractive. Paying dividends in extra shares can also put pressure on the price.
For November, the better approach is to wait for potential confirmation:
● AGL: positive merger news or a clear break above resistance.
● SBK: stable lending profits and low bad-loan losses.
● FFB: a close above R24.94 with strong trading activity.
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** This article was prepared by BROKSTOCK analyst Maboko Seabi
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