Monthly JSE Investment Insights: February 2026

As the markets enter February, investors are grappling with a highly volatile, event-driven global market. The initial new-year optimism has been subdued by uncertainty over the timing and extent of the anticipated interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve. This “will they or won’t they” dynamic is causing significant swings in market sentiment, directly impacting the risk appetite for emerging markets like South Africa. For the month ahead, investors should expect this choppiness to continue. The market will be highly sensitive to incoming inflation data from both the U.S. and locally, as well as any forward-looking statements from central bankers. In this environment, the focus shifts from broad market momentum to individual company fundamentals. Investors will be looking for businesses that can demonstrate operational resilience, strong cash flow, and clear strategic execution, regardless of the macroeconomic noise.

Harmony Gold (HAR)

Harmony Gold is demonstrating strong operational strength and capitalising on a favourable gold price environment. According to its latest operational update, the company is firmly on track to meet its full-year production and cost guidance for the 2026 financial year. Despite some minor operational issues in the second quarter, including a slower-than-planned ramp-up at its Eva Copper project in Australia, Harmony’s core South African mines have performed well. The higher gold price has provided a positive boost for the company’s cash flow and balance sheet. This has allowed Harmony to continue investing in its high-grade, long-life assets while effectively managing its debt profile. The combination of meeting production targets and benefiting from a strong commodity price highlights the investment case. Based on this operational performance, market analysis suggests the share price has the potential to increase approximately 9% from current levels to trade in the R385 region.

Stadio Holdings (SDO)

Stadio is quietly establishing itself as a formidable player in the South African private education sector, with a clear strategy that is now bearing fruit. After a period of heavy investment in developing its campuses and digital infrastructure, the company has reached a critical inflexion point. Its focus has shifted from capital expenditure to operational efficiency and student growth. Recent market analysis highlights that Stadio’s two new mega-campuses in Centurion and Durbanville are now fully operational and are successfully attracting a growing number of students. The company has successfully consolidated its various brands under the single “Stadio” name, creating a stronger, more recognisable national institution. With its primary investment phase now complete, Stadio is poised to benefit from operational leverage, where revenue growth from increasing student numbers should translate directly into improved profitability and cash flow. This successful transition from the building phase to the growth phase has led analysts to project a potential 7.8% increase in share price from current levels.

Vukile Property Fund (VKE)

Vukile is actively executing a major strategic repositioning to become a dominant, internationally diversified retail property company. In one transaction, Vukile acquired a 35% stake in the global retail platform Pradera, a deal valued at R94.7 billion, which gives it significant influence and exposure to retail assets across Europe and the UK. This move scales its international footprint. Complementing this expansion, the property fund recently announced the strategic disposal of its 12 Spanish retail parks for R5.2 billion. This sale allows the company to recycle capital, reduce debt, and sharpen its focus on its core portfolio of high-quality, dominant shopping centres in both Spain and South Africa. This dual strategy of acquiring a global platform while refining its existing portfolio showcases a straightforward, decisive approach to creating value. By strengthening its balance sheet and expanding its international reach, Vukile is positioning itself for future growth. Based on these significant strategic moves, market consensus suggests a potential 5% increase in share price from current levels for February.

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** This article was prepared by BROKSTOCK analyst Maboko Seabi