Copper Takes the Lead as BHP Delivers a Strong Earnings for 2026

BHP’s (BHG) 2026 financial year results show a major change in the group’s earnings mix, with copper, rather than iron ore, being the largest source of operating earnings for the first time. Higher copper prices, steady production and tighter cost control helped the group grow revenue, cash flow and shareholder returns.

Statutory profit increased slower than BHP’s underlying profit because of exceptional charges, including costs linked to the Samarco Dam failure and a $2.3 billion non-cash impairment on the Jansen Potash project in Canada, meaning BHP reduced the accounting value of its investment after project costs increased. Another US$1.1 billion charge is linked to BHP’s ongoing obligations following the 2015 Samarco Dam failure in Brazil, plus its share of compensation, restoration and settlement-related costs.

Key Financial Metrics

●     Revenue: $58.8 billion, up 15% from $51.3 billion a year earlier.

●     Profit from operations: $23.9 billion, up 23% from $19.5 billion.

●     Attributable profit: $9.8 billion, up 9% from $9 billion.

●     EBITDA: US$32.9 billion, up 27% from US$26 billion; the group’s underlying EBITDA margin improved to 59% from 53%.

●     Earnings per share: 260 cents, up 29.9% from 200.2 cents.

●     Full-year dividend: $1.72 per share, up 56.4% from $1.10 per share in FY2025.

●     Free cash flow: $9.8 billion, up 83% from US$5.3 billion.

●     Net debt: US$8.7 billion, down from $12.9 billion a year earlier.

●     Copper business: Copper produced $18.19 billion in operating earnings and made up 54% of group underlying EBITDA, compared with 45% in 2025.

Analysis & Outlook

Share Price Performance:

BHP closed $89.09 on 18 August 2026, above its previous 2011 high of $87.41. Over the past 12 months, the share price has risen 75%, and is up 45% since the start of 2026. This strong run reflects the market’s growing confidence in BHP’s copper-led earnings, cash generation and higher dividend. It also raises the bar for future results as investors will be looking for copper prices to stay supportive, costs to remain under control and growth projects to deliver as planned.

What Could Move the Stock:

The biggest positive driver remains the copper market. BHP has become much more exposed to copper, which is used in power grids, electric vehicles, renewable energy equipment and data-centre infrastructure. Copper prices staying strong would support BHP’s earnings and cash generation, while its low-cost assets at Escondida and Copper South Australia give it a stronger position than higher-cost producers. The next important news items are the planned Escondida concentrator expansion, progress towards a final investment decision at the Vicuña copper project, and the start-up of the Jansen Potash project.

Risks to Watch:

Copper is also BHP’s biggest risk because it now contributes the largest share of the group’s earnings. A sharp fall in the copper price, weaker demand from China, or a slower global economy would reduce the benefit from this new earnings mix. BHP also flagged higher diesel prices, inflation and supply-chain disruption as cost pressures. The Jansen impairment and higher expected spending on its next stage are reminders that large mining projects can become more expensive or take longer than planned. These are factors to monitor alongside the company’s production guidance and project updates.

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** This article was prepared by BROKSTOCK analyst Maboko Seabi