INVESTMENT INSIGHTS - THARISA PLC (THA)

START – $25.70 | FINISH – $33.40

TRADING PLAN

●      Potential Entry: Entry can be initiated once the share price closes above R25.70, confirming the breakout from the ascending channel. 

●      Risk Management: The stop-loss level is around R22, representing a roughly 14.4% drop from the potential entry and sits just below the historic R24 support. 

●      Profit Target: The next key resistance is near R33.40, which aligns with a 30% upward move from the potential entry level and reflects management's growth assessment.

WHY THESE SHARES HAVE POTENTIAL FOR PROFIT

Record earnings on a surging PGM basket price: Tharisa's first-half of 2026 results were good. Revenue rose 28% to $359.4 million, EBITDA jumped 138.1% to $104.3 million, and earnings per share surged more than 500% to $0.158. The engine behind this was the PGM basket price, which climbed roughly 85% to an average of $2 599 per ounce, with spot prices reaching around $2 805. When the price of what a miner sells rises sharply while costs stay controlled, profit and cash flow expand dramatically. 

Rising production across both revenue streams: Tharisa is not just benefitting from higher prices; it is producing more metal. Third-quarter 2026 PGM production climbed to 39 600 ounces from 34 300 ounces in the prior quarter, keeping the group on track for its full-year guidance of 145 000 to 165 000 ounces of PGMs and 1.5 to 1.65 million tonnes of chrome. As a rare co-producer of both PGMs and chrome, Tharisa earns from two commodities at once, giving it a natural buffer that most single-metal miners lack.

A strong balance sheet and rising dividend: The company ended the third quarter with close to $200 million of cash on hand and a positive net cash position of $10.7 million, even while funding two major growth projects. On the back of this strength, the board raised the interim dividend to $0.025 per share. A growing dividend backed by real cash is a strong signal of management's confidence and provides investors with income while they wait for the growth story to play out. 

The Karo Platinum growth engine in Zimbabwe: Tharisa is building a major new mine called Karo Platinum in Zimbabwe, and the project is moving along well. Construction is underway, the team has started clearing earth to reach the ore, and a top contractor is on site. The company has already put around $241 million into the project. Karo is expected to produce about 226 000 ounces of platinum-group metals a year for its first ten years, and Tharisa values the project at roughly $413 million. Today, the company relies on a single mine, but Karo will turn it into a business with more than one, and every step toward Karo's first production could help lift the share price. 

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

Trading above the 200-day SMA: The share price recently closed above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a key long-term support level that separates a bullish trend from a bearish one. Holding above this line confirms that long-term momentum has turned positive and buyers are in control.

Respecting an ascending channel: The price continues to respect a well-defined ascending channel, making higher lows along the lower boundary. The share is yet to test the upper resistance of this channel, meaning there is room for the price to run toward the target before meeting significant technical resistance. 

Historic support at R24: A firm support level sits at around R24, an area that echoes the share's very first week of trading on the JSE back in 2014. Long-standing price levels like this often act as strong floors.

MACD bullish crossover: Adding conviction, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator has produced a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line. This momentum signal confirms that buying pressure is building and the recent period of weakness may be ending. 

RISKS

Chrome price and demand tied to China: Chrome is a major earnings driver, and its price depends heavily on Chinese stainless-steel demand. Tharisa has already trimmed its chrome guidance during 2026, and any further softness in Chinese industrial activity could pressure this half of the business and weigh on group earnings. 

Execution and country risk at Karo: The Karo project in Zimbabwe is capital-intensive and still years from full production. Cost overruns, funding requirements, or delays would strain cash flow, while Zimbabwe carries elevated political, currency, and regulatory risk outside the company's control. 

Commodity price and rand volatility: Tharisa's fortunes are closely tied to volatile PGM and chrome prices, and to the rand/dollar exchange rate. The recent PGM basket surge is a favourable condition today, but a reversal in metal prices or a sharp move in the rand could quickly compress the margins that are currently driving the bullish case.

SOURCES

●      Tharisa reports project development progress, steady third-quarter production(14 Jul 2026)

●      Tharisa plc  Half Year 2026 Earnings Call Highlights 

●      Karo Platinum project, Zimbabwe – update  (17 Jul 2026)

●      Tharisa nears deal with Zimbabwe for Karo Platinum project

●      Tharisa reports steady progress in Q3 production, but trims guidance 

●      Tharisa's new projects gathered pace while third quarter PGM production increased

Disclaimer:
*Any opinions, views, analysis, or other information provided in this article is provided by BROKSTOCK SA trading as BROKSTOCK as general market commentary and should not be viewed as advice according to the FAIS Act of 2002. BROKSTOCK SA does not warrant the correctness, accuracy, timeliness, reliability, or completeness of any information provided by third parties. You must rely upon your judgement in all aspects of your investment decisions, and all decisions are made at your own risk. BROKSTOCK SA and any of its employees shall not be responsible for and will not accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss, including, without limitation, any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of the market commentary. The content contained within the article is subject to change at any time without notice. BROKSTOCK SA is an authorised financial services provider - FSP No. 51404. T&Cs and Disclaimers are applicable: https://brokstock.co.za/
** This article was prepared by BROKSTOCK analyst Maboko Seabi