INVESTMENT INSIGHTS - Nokia Corporation (NOK)

START – $10.30 | FINISH – $15

TRADING PLAN

Potential Entry: A position may be considered at or near $10.30, preferably after the share closes above this level. This would suggest that the Bollinger Band squeeze is breaking upward.

Risk Management: The stop-loss is set at $8. This is about 22% below the $10.30 entry level and sits below the $8.40 support level that the share price recently held.

Profit Target: The next major target is $15. From a $10.30 entry, this would be a 45.6% increase before fees, taxes and currency movements.

WHY THESE SHARES HAVE POTENTIAL FOR PROFIT

AI data-centre demand is helping to change Nokia’s revenue story: In its Q2 2026 results, released on 23 July 2026, Nokia said sales to AI and cloud customers increased to 105% year-on-year. It also received €2.8 billion in AI and cloud orders during the quarter. Management expects around half of these orders to become revenue over the next 12 months. Nokia said that supply capacity remains a major industry constraint.

A world-first AI-RAN platform built with NVIDIA: On 15 July 2026, Nokia launched what it calls the industry’s first commercial AI-native RAN, or AI-RAN, platform. It is built on Nokia’s anyRAN software and NVIDIA’s Aerial AI-RAN platform. NVIDIA completed a $1 billion investment in Nokia in 2025, with the new shares representing about 2.9% of Nokia’s total shares at that time. Nokia expects pilots from late 2026, and commercial availability in 2027. T-Mobile has already piloted NVIDIA AI-RAN infrastructure using Nokia anyRAN software. Nokia’s subscription model could help the company earn more regular software revenue over time instead of relying only on once-off hardware sales.

Regulatory tailwind and analyst support: Reuters reported that the US FCC is working on a possible restriction on new Chinese optical transceiver models imports. This is still a proposal and could be changed or dropped. It may affect supplier choices in data centres, but a direct benefit to Nokia has not been confirmed. Bank of America kept its Buy rating and raised its Nokia price target to $18.50 from $18 on 23 July 2026.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

Holding above the 200-day SMA and key support: The price tested the 200-day simple moving average and the $8.40 support level, then closed above both after the pullback. This suggests that buyers stepped in at an important price area. Staying above these levels would support the current positive chart view, while a fall below them would weaken it.

Bollinger Band squeeze, breakout imminent: During the pullback, the price moved close to the lower Bollinger Band but did not close below it. This suggests that selling pressure may have been absorbed. The bands are now narrowing into a squeeze, meaning that price movement has become tighter. A squeeze can be followed by a strong move, but that move can either be up or down. A confirmed close above the entry area would support an upward breakout; a move below support would weaken the setup.

Confirmation to watch: Look for stronger trading volume and a bullish moving average convergence divergence (MACD) crossover, where the MACD line moves above the signal line. These signs would suggest that upward momentum is becoming stronger and could help reduce the risk of a false breakout.

KEY RISKS

Supply, rather than demand, is currently a key constraint. This could delay the conversion of customer orders into revenue. The FCC transceiver restriction is still only a draft proposal, not enacted law, and any direct benefit to Nokia remains uncertain. A downside break from the Bollinger Band squeeze, especially below the $8.40 support level, would weaken the technical setup and could bring the $8 stop-loss level into play.

SOURCES

●     Q2 & Half-Year 2026 report  

●     Nokia's commercial AI-RAN platform ·

●     Nvidia/T-Mobile 6G trials ·

●     Proposed FCC ban on Chinese optical transceivers

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** This article was prepared by BROKSTOCK analyst Maboko Seabi